We need a few experts on the history of experts. Such a figure could estimate their average accuracy. My guess is that it hovers between 1 and 2 per cent. If it were any higher, we would not have needed new ones every few years.
This is a beautiful observation about the current meaning of ‘Expert’, but the historical aspect is conflated.
Everyone who has performed a job or task for a long time is an expert in the job or task. Real expertise is a collection of motion and sense sequences in the cerebellum. If we haven’t been ruined by mind-smashing media, we can judge facts and actions in our area of expertise ACCURATELY. We can compare the described skill with our skill and record the deltas. When we hear an official or media ‘Expert’ speaking in our area, we can instantly tell that the official ‘Expert’ is perfectly wrong. This is an absolute universal since 1946.
The same goes for risk assessment. We can judge the risks of actions and things within our area ACCURATELY unless we’ve been ruined by media.
The monsters currently described as ‘Experts’ (especially ‘Scientists’) are not experts at all. They are not describing the part of reality they know best. They believe what their paycheck believes and say what their paycheck says. Attempting to relate their verbal poison to reality is a category error. Their verbal output serves as reinforcement for utterly insane and murderous commands given by the demonic rulers.
Reality is totally disjunct from the output of demons. Attempting to compare a MURDEROUS COMMAND with a STATEMENT OF FACT is impossible and meaningless.
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The history of official expertise is more complicated. In some times and places the only audible authority was a hard-wired loudspeaker for demonic commands. In earlier centuries these loudspeakers were called priests. Starting in 1700 the murdersquawkers were called Philosophers and Economists. Starting in 1789, some regimes called the loudspeakers ‘Scientists’. Since 1946 we have been in such a regime.