Ryan Burge discusses the shifting correlation between party and religion. One of his graphs agrees with what I’ve seen. ‘The Partisanship of White Christians’ shows a flat line until 1980, when Christians abruptly turned Repooflican.
I saw this change close up. Lee Atwater converted Christians from Americans to Israelis. Former hippies were suddenly Reaganites because they saw Reagan as a quasi-messiah who would restore Israel to its place as center of the world.
Another graph, from the opposite angle, shows an equally abrupt turn at 1990. The share of Americans who called themselves NONEs or NIPs had been low, and suddenly surged. I don’t have an easy explanation for this change.
One guess: 1990 was Bush Senior’s coup for Deepstate, resuming aggressive war and Exceptionalism after Reagan went soft on nukes. The Kuwait War was a shock for many people, perhaps just as strong as WW1 had been. I was working in a university office at that time. A group of female students was gathered around a TV watching the televised SHOCK AND AWE. They were genuinely shocked and awed when they saw the (mostly staged) destruction. They gasped and screamed. I suspect many people lost their faith in America at that point.
Burge sees the tradeoff in branding terms:
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All this brings me back to what I believe is one of the most important papers I’ve ever read in political science: Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States by Miller and Schofield. Here’s their theory. Every time a party (the Democrats, in this case) tries to appeal to a new set of voters (nones) it leaves the other part of its flank exposed (white Christians). The opposite party then swoops in and takes over that part of the electorate.
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Hmm. Sounds familiar right now, doesn’t it? Bud opens the tent to trannies (sexual NIPs), and men leave. CNN opens the tent to political NIPs, and Dems leave.
Nobody wants to include NIPs, and NIPs by definition don’t want to be included. It’s symmetrical.
Many years ago I illustrated this point.
Polistra’s law of dog-bowls: Politicians are like two dogs with two food bowls, or two babies with two toys. Each party only wants the voters and lobbyists in the other party’s bowl. Each party NEGLECTS its solidly owned blocs, leaving them vulnerable to a grab from the other side.
Big Tents are actually Relocated Tents, because tents have an invariant size.
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And speaking of quasi-messiahs:
Trump literally says I AM JESUS.
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Former President Donald Trump rolled out a possible new campaign slogan Saturday night at the Faith & Freedom Coalition conference in Washington, D.C.: ‘I’m being indicted for you.’
I have to ask Ralph a question, were your other candidates treated this way?’ Trump said, turning to Faith & Freedom Coalition founder Ralph Reed, who was seated at the dais behind him, cuing cheers from the crowd.
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PING! Ralph Reed led the 1980 conversion from Americans to Israeli citizens.
Trump does have one thing in common with Jesus. He came once and betrayed all of his promises. He tortured and strangled and killed his followers. His followers then spent their lives awaiting and inviting his Second Term, when he would actually do all the things he promised.
Fools.
Polistra's Mill 