In 1958, TV Radio Life magazine interviewed Martin Klein, who hosted a weekly science program on LA television station KCOP, listed as ‘independent’. It’s still there, still on channel 13 with the same call letters. They asked Klein to predict 50 years into the future. How would we live in 2008?
Klein worked for Cohu Labs in LA. I probably should be familiar with Cohu, but I’ve never heard of it. Cohu is still going strong 70 years later, a broad-based research and consulting firm specializing in tech measurements along the same lines as my favorite GenRad.
Klein’s predictions are an interesting mix of smart caution and stupid optimism. 1958 was a major inflection point in history, so it was an especially tricky time for predictions. Some future trends were clearly visible and openly discussed by important people. Other trends would soon be destroyed by demons. The demons were already planning dystopia in 1958, but their plans were only known to insiders.
Klein’s words are in bold, interspersed with my grades on each prediction.
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It seems to me that there are several possibilities. One of them is that Russia will continue on its program of engulfing us scientifically. In other words, they are graduating about 100,000 trained scientists a year and we barely one third of that.
Grade: A-. He was mostly correct but not because of numbers. As I’ve repeated 100,000 times, Russia was training its scientists properly and we were training our scientists stupidly.
The result may be, as time goes on, that we will be reduced progressively in our importance as a world power. Their program seems to be one just such as this, whereby eventually they will have sufficient scientific advancement over us so that they will literally engulf us because we will have to turn to them for so many things.
Grade: C+. Engulfing and turning to them for so many things are accurate prophecies, but the engulfer is China, not Russia. Many people in 1958, including both THE PRESIDENT and George Romney, recognized that we were handing our industry to hostile countries. At that time the main engulfer was Japan. China’s new direction after Mao died was completely surprising and truly unpredictable.
In terms of down to earth living, the world will probably be very much the same as it is today. True, we’ll be getting our power from reactors and fusion energy, but this is a basic advancement which will not affect everybody in his day to day activities.
Grade: B+. Nobody in 1958 could possibly foresee that Nixon, THE CURRENT VICE-PRESIDENT, would later destroy the country with environmentalism. Nuclear power was rationally and properly on path to becoming the main source. If nuclear had grown as expected, it wouldn’t have affected our day to day activities. Nixon’s environmentalism was MEANT to destroy our day to day activities.
There is no doubt that considerable electronic gadgetry will be added to everyday life….
Grade: A. The gadgetry turned out to be somewhat more important than he thought, but not as important as most of our current “intellectuals” think. People are still mainly watching TV on the predicted huge screens and the unpredicted tiny screens.
… and there will be progress in the medical field but in general, activities will be much the same as they are now.
Grade: B. Wrong, but his optimism was rational at that time. In fact the medical field halted exactly after 1958. The measles vaccine was the last medical achievement. It was developed in 1958 and approved for full use in 1963. After that, medical research turned to federally funded crap and Wall Street funded fraud, climaxing in 2020 when the entire worldwide medical profession eagerly joined the Bush/Trump medical torture regime.
I think people will get up substantially at the same time that they do now.
Grade: A. Right, but I’m curious to know which time he meant. In 1958 most Americans got up around 6 and started work at 8, which is still typical for office work. TV and radio, written in NYC, assumed the NYC schedule of getting up at 8 and starting work at 9:30 or 10. As seen on TV, only farmers got up before 8.
They will eat as little as most of them do for breakfast now, except that they will take a simple pill — which is available right now — so that they will not feel hungry for the balance of the day.
Grade: F- – – – – – . Total fail. Nutrition by pill was the standard stupid “scientific” dream, common from Gernsback to the 70s. Real nutritionists ALWAYS understood that the digestive system is meant to take its chemicals by working on fibers, not by direct consumption of predigested chemicals.
They will get to work in automobiles which will still get stuck on inadequate freeways.
Grade: A+. Perhaps because he was in LA, he correctly understood Parkinson’s law for freeways. Traffic expands to fill the available lanes.
They may possibly all have telephones in their cars, at any rate, they will be more common than they are today.
Grade: B+. This was more cautious than most sci-fi prophecies. 1910 science writers predicted iPhones accurately.
They will work in buildings which contain a considerable amount of glass, but which are, nevertheless, all air-conditioned.
Grade: A. Yup.
The working day will be five hours.
Grade: F. Parkinson’s book was published in 1955. No excuse for this one.
People will come home in the early afternoon and, just as they do today, will spend the rest of the day and evening sitting in front of the television set.
Grade: B. Wrong about the five hour day, right about the TV.
The sets will be much larger and much flatter and will resemble large
murals, but the material they watch will not have changed one bit.
Grade: B+. Correct on the TV sets, understandably wrong on the programs. Nobody could foresee that the government would repeal the Fairness Doctrine, letting TV substitute fakely opposing “news” for its traditional pro wrestling and soap operas.
I think they will spend more time visiting their psychiatrists and less time visiting their dentists.
Grade: A+. Correct on both, and a rare prediction on dentists. Teeth are better because we started flossing AND because we favored real food instead of his predicted pills.
Automobile repair bills will be larger and magazines and books will be
sold even less than they are now.
Grade: A+. Correct twice.
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The contrast of Ike and Nixon sharpens the inflection point. In 1958 Ike recognized that we were tearing down the foundations of our industrial economy with defense contracts and offshoring. Ike tried to warn us, but we didn’t listen. Nixon understood the problem from the opposite viewpoint. He saw useful employment and livable wages as deadly threats to Wall Street. During his time as a Wall Street lawyer he sabotaged our own industry. When he got his chance at the top job in ’68, he immediately started serving Wall Street and destroying industry with EPA.
Irrelevant: Klein’s two employers, KCOP and Cohu, endured and prospered while many others in the same fields failed. He missed some predictions but he was good at predicting his own career security.
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