Popymarket

History Today has a feature on the long-lasting Italian industry of Pope betting. It focuses on the 1500s, a time with way too much history packed into the tiny geography of the Vatican. The church had reached a peak of secular control and wealth, then a series of wars and secessions broke it.

Meanwhile, Italian aristocrats and bankers made and lost money by betting on each papal election. Courtiers, like today’s tech aristocrats, made a BIG show of betting and losing BIG on everything, including irrelevant details of daily life. Their sole purpose was outdicking the other dickheads, not making money. Bankers were cautious and systematic, keeping double-entry ledgers and hedging each bet, aiming to hold previous gains and avoid losses.

Some of the cardinals were aristocrats, part of the betting culture. The cardinals chose especially old and sick popes who would die fast, in order to weaken the bureaucracy and provide more opportunities for betting.

Hmm. Sounds familiar. An empire reaches maximum secular power, then a series of wars and secessions breaks it. Meanwhile the aristocrats in the legislature are betting on defense stocks and tech stocks, choosing especially old and sick leaders to favor their bets.

The Popymarket itself is still running; the article says Parolin is currently a 5-2 favorite to succeed Prevost. (IIRC, Parolin was the strong favorite last time, and Prevost was a long shot.)

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Semi-related thought, just because I need to write it down. In this week’s discussion of the popped AI bubble, most commenters assume that bailing out Altman will mean state control of AI. As usual with Shared Lies, one side says government control is good and the other says it’s bad. As usual with Shared Lies, the real question is upstream from the point of contention.

Look at the 2009 bailout. After TARP we didn’t control the banks. THE BANKS CONTROLLED US. The government maintained zero interest for 15 years because the investment banks wanted zero interest. Bailouts are blackmail payments, not purchases. Even Bush implied that the bailout was needed to pacify some unspecified “foreign” investors, not to buy and improve our banks.

If we pay Altman, we will be temporarily buying silence, not owning his evil company. We will be openly acknowledging that he could bring down the system if he wanted to.