Not always obvious…

Via Protos, a largely pro-bitcoin aggregator.

Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried’s PAC of choice infused a record-breaking $11.3 million into political candidate Carrick Flynn, whose dramatic loss to Andrea Salinas in the Democratic primary for Oregon’s new 6th congressional district illustrates a hard-learned truth in American politics: wealth cannot guarantee political success. Just ask Michael Bloomberg, and then ask him again.

The incumbent-less race for Oregon’s 6th — created in September through census-based redistricting — saw all-time-high spending on a House primary contest.

The conventional wisdom isn’t entirely wrong, and was closer to true in earlier decades, especially for a new candidate. Money bought familiarity, and familiarity bought votes. The correlation started to slip around 2000. By 2016 it was clearly a poor rule.

But crypto dudes are supposed to be strictly rational autists. They should be able to mentally calculate this r-squared variable down to the 3474837.58934th decimal place in less than 0.46529 milliseconds. Did Bankman-Fried really believe in the old rule?

Bloomberg certainly didn’t believe it. He wasn’t really running for president. His two campaigns established connections and obligations in the world of media and political operatives. He used those connections to BUY ALL THE FUCKING MAYORS IN THE COUNTRY, which turned out to be a much more significant power base than the presidency.

Tulsi and Bernie didn’t believe the rule. They raised tremendous amounts of money, then pulled the rug and supported the establishment. They weren’t creating obligations, just getting rich.

Bankman-Fried is most likely following the Bloomberg pattern, not the Bernie pattern. He already had lots of money, and now he owns political operatives and a reusable “candidate”.

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