60/40 odds

Via NewSuperstitionist: Coin flipping is controlled by the flipper.

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Researchers theorised that when a coin is flipped, the flipper’s thumb imparts a slight wobble to it, causing it to spend more time with one side facing upwards while in the air and making it more likely to land showing that side. They predicted that a coin should land showing the same side that was facing up when flipped approximately 51 per cent of the time.

The team tossed coins of 46 different currencies and denominations 350,757 times and recorded both the pre-flipping and post-flipping state. The findings backed up the original research: coins are likely to land on the same side they started on 50.8 per cent of the time.

Crucially, though, the team found large variations in flippers. One person landed coins on the same side they started on 60.1 per cent of the time, while one at the other end of the spectrum landed their coins in this way just 48.7 per cent of the time. The researchers say that different people may impart more off-axis rotation when they flip a coin, causing it to wobble and creating a higher same-side bias.

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I appreciate the report of the two ends, not just the mean. Means and null hypotheses are designed to censor out human talents in service of the Endarkenment myth of passive inanimate equality. This reminds me of the Endicott experiment, where the reported mean fuzzed out the REALITY that a few of the participants were fairly reliable clairvoyants, while most were “random”.

And I’ll bet $1000 with 60/40 odds that expert coin-flipping gamblers can do better than 60. Expert dice throwers know similar tricks and don’t need loaded dice. Coins aren’t typically used in casinos, so the talent hasn’t been officially recognized by making rules against it.