Signs of sanity

While most commentators “left” and “right” are screaming at the central banks to turn on the counterfeit fountains again, it’s refreshing to see an establishment voice who recognizes the new situation as NORMAL and a GOOD BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY.

Richard Rushfield sees the end of the Share Value ESG era as the end of Big Bets in the entertainment industry. VCs love Big Bets.

What we see now is the scales falling from the investors’ eyes as they realize that Hollywood is what Hollywood has always been: a confounded money pit built around a business that makes less sense than a craps table. And the fact that Jeff Bezos wanted to hang out here may have less to do with him seeing an undervalued, disruption-worthy business, but more that he wanted to hang here for the same reasons that once drew Howard Hughes, Charles Bluhdorn, Edgar Bronfman, Jamie Packer and moguls since time immemorial. What was different this time is that this round of moguls swept in with a particular business model to inflict on their new targets and a tsunami of investors trailing behind with money enough to reshape this industry in their image. The prevailing wisdom: they are disruptors, they can disrupt anything!

Entertainment is always chancy, and you stand a better chance of winning SOMETHING when you make lots of small bets. Smaller businesses have to make small bets, and many of them have lasted a long time by sticking to a known niche.

The purpose of Innovative Disruption is to kill the world by bankrupting all small business. Now that the VC whales are out of fuel, smaller enterprises making smaller chunks of entertainment stand a much better chance of survival.

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