Bet on a bet

I’ll go out on a (so far unburned) limb with this one.

Premise 1. Arsonists are at work in several areas, not just the Catholic Criminalities zone west of the river. Some of them are clearly homeless or crazy, some are driving cars. Some are using matches, some using blowtorches, some tossing lit plastic bottles out the window. The same pattern occurred last summer.

Premise 2. Since Jan 2025, Polymarket and Kalshi offer hitman contracts on the likelihood of specific fires in specific places.

Conclusion left as easy homework for reader.

In sane times hitman contracts were illegal. Sanity no longer exists.